Year: 2022 | Month: September | Volume 67 | Issue 4
Forecasting Potato Prices: Application of ARIMA Model
Prakash Singh Badal
V. Kamalvanshi
Abha Goyal
Pramod Kumar
Biswajit Mondal
DOI:10.46852/0424-2513.4.2022.14
Abstract:
Price fluctuations in potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.) concern consumers, farmers, and policymakers, and its accurate price prediction is important for all the stakeholders. In India, out of a total of 5.34 million ha of land under vegetables, potato occupies nearly 20.8 per cent of area. India produces 12.3 per cent of world potato production (around 45.34 million tons) and is next only to China. The major potato-producing states are highly concentrated in the Indo-gangetic plains of the country. Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal and Bihar account for 32.4, 26.9 and 14.6 per cent of national production of potato. The present study was designed to forecast the prices of potato in these three major potato-producing states of the country. Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average forecasting models - ARIMA (1,0,1) for Varanasi market, ARIMA (2,0,1) for Kolkata market, and the ARIMA (3,0,1) for Patna market were applied. The performance of the ARIMA models produced reliable forecast of prices of potatoes for all three major producing states.
Highlights
- Price forecasting of potato for all three major potato producing states of India for the year 2022.
- Application of Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for price forecasting.
- Granger Causality test was applied to know the relationship between arrival and prices of potato for all three major potato producing states of India namely Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, and Bihar.
- Evaluation of forecasted market price of potato for all its three major potato producing states.
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